Live by the Sword

Speculation, elation and hope were rampant Thursday when a forecast from Election Data Services (EDS) predicted that Washington would gain a 10th Congressional seat due to probable results from the 2010 Census.

(The U.S. House of Representatives is set at 435 members. Population growth results in reallocation of those seats among gaining and losing states to achieve equal representation.)

Such enthusiasm (despondency elsewhere) is most understandable given the power of Congressional representation and the allocations of federal dollars based on populations.

However, a quick review of the EDS forecast and the underlying U.S. Census's American Community Survey (ACS) engenders concern. The EDS news release's tables contain the notation: "No Military Overseas factored in." The issue of this seemingly obscure note is that the Census Bureau allocates the count of deployed soldiers to their home of record, an adjustment that takes place later in the population allocation.

Fort Lewis currently has about 18,000 soldiers deployed, returning in June, 2010, past the April 1, 2010 Census count date. Those soldiers and about 1.23 dependents each could count for Washington's lead of 24,592 persons as forecast by EDS.

Much of the state's populations gain, especially of recent years (that have propelled it past contender Oregon for a Congressional seat gain), has come with the incremental realignment of about 13,000 soldiers, plus families, to Fort Lewis since 2004. Since speculation focuses on the north Thurston County area as a rapidly growing location, note should be made that soldiers and their families are increasingly choosing that area for off post housing.

The cause of concern is that Census uses deployed soldiers' home of record for allocating population. Text in the EDS news release addresses this issue by saying military reallocation shouldn't change the results. What's left unclear is if ACS or the EDS deducted deployed soldiers from local posts from their respective estimate and forecast. That potential reduction occurs along with the unknown factor of whether soldiers' families remained in this area during their breadwinner's deployment or chose to return to the extended families of either spouse.

Before we all cry foul, we should remember that Washington's 9th Congressional seat was won during the 1990 Census because of soldiers deployed from Massachusetts and were not counted there. The Supreme Court eventually upheld the Census rule to allocate by home of record to Washington's gain and Massachusetts' loss.

Know What You Want Before You Ask

The first community checkup on the DoD/OEA (Office of Economic Adjustment) community planning grant was presented to a joint meeting of the Tacoma-Pierce County and Lakewood Chambers' Military Affairs Committees this morning.

Dan Penrose, Project Manager for the City of Lakewood, the designated regional lead agency, gave members an overview of the significance of the defense industry presence in the South Sound region.

Actually a set of two grant awards, Lakewood is addressing I-5 transportation alternatives and a growth coordination plan. The transportation alternatives grant was begun in March 2009 with a final report expected Summer 2010. The $1.3 million growth coordination plan award was made in August 2009 with project completion planned for December 2010.

Although these planning dollars don't fix our physical infrastructure needs, they are a first step in getting them "shovel-ready," for the documented "ask" the community will need to prepare for our Congressional delegation.

Leg Passes Interstate Schools Compact

The Washington State Senate at 5PM Monday concurred with the House amendment on SSB 5248 and voted 43-1-1 to pass the Interstate Compact on Educational Opportunity for Military Children. Now on to Governor Gregoire, who is expected to sign it.

The House amendment struck the null & void clause for funding that was in the Senate's original bill. The fiscal note will indeed be funded at $49K annually, out of the state budget.

Many thanks to all who helped in this effort, including the Task Force membership, military family-friendly legislators, the Puget Sound Regional Council, School District Superintendents, OSPI leaders, School Liaisons from the military installations, the Tacoma News Tribune, and most especially to the military families who showed up to testify. Sincere thanks go to Senator Steve Hobbs and Representative Christine Rolfes, our diligent sponsors for this effort.

As the seventh largest military state, our 29,000 active duty military-dependent school children, and activated Guard/Reserve member school children, will now join at least 14 other states (the compact is now on the Governors' desks in Alaska, Maryland and Hawaii, with other states to follow) as a compact state seeking a level playing field for the difficult school transition issues that arise when military families move from state to state while serving our Nation.

As soon as we know of the bill signing ceremony, Mark San Souci will pass on the time and place for those interested in attending. The effective date of the bill is 90 days after adjournment of the legislative session in which the bill is passed: July 25, 2009.

As we learn more about implementation of the compact in our state, based on creation of the State Council prescribed in the law, Mark will pass that information on to you also.

It's a great day for our military families!

Vision Clears in Fog as Ft. Lewis May Grow More

A few folks braved the dense fog to attend the Open House hosted by the Army for possible expansion of troops and units at Fort Lewis.

As blogged earlier, Ft. Lewis is examining the potential increase of 5,680 troops to Ft. Lewis. This would promise to bring the post's strength up to over 40,000 by 2013. The alternatives are:

1. Grow the Army This alternative would increase by approximately 1,880 soldiers by 2013. This alternative has been publicly available before.


2. Combat Service Support This alternative would be Alternative 1 plus about 1,000 Combat Service Support soldiers. This alternative has been publicly available before.


3. Combat Aviation Brigade This alternative would be Alternative 2 plus the addition of a 2,800 soldier Combat Aviation Brigade with 110 helicopters. This is not to be confused with an Environmental Assessment in 2005 for 800 soldiers in an aviation regiment. That earlier move from Germany to Ft. Lewis has been accomplished. This is a new action.


4. Status Quo This alternative is a no change from present conditions comparison.

Respondents have until February 5 to comment upon a scoping for an Environmental Impact Statement (National Environmental Protection Act). The full timeline guide is:

• Jan.-Jul. 2009 Draft EIS


• Jul.-Aug. 2009 Public Comments about the Draft EIS


• Aug.-Nov. 2009 Final EIS Issued


• Dec. 2009 Record of Decision

Rising Above the Floor

Economists frequently cite Pierce County's military presence as providing an economic floor and damping radical swings like we see in other Puget Sound economies.

Readers with interest in military and community matters should recall information from public sources for a "Grow the Army" (Oct. 2007) and the future stationing of a Combat Service soldiers at the post. New to our attention is the inclusion of a 2,800 Soldier medium Combat Aviation Brigade with 110 helicopters. (An earlier Environmental Assessment called for an aviation regiment of 800 soldiers. (Feb. 2005))

There is an opportunity to raise the floor if not the roof with the notice of a scoping for adding 5,680 soldiers to Ft. Lewis and the Yakima Training Center (YTC). First noted in the Federal Register, Vol. 73, No. 246, December 22, 2008, those interested may present comments at an open house where personnel from Ft. Lewis and the YTC will be present to provide information and answer questions.

January 20, 6:00-8:00 p.m.
Lacey Community Center
6729 Pacific Ave. SE
Lacey, WA 98503

January 21, 6:00-8:00 p.m.
Hal Holmes Community Center
209 North Ruby Street
Ellensburg, WA 98926

January 22, 6:00-8:00 p.m.
Howard Johnson Plaza
9 North 9th Street
Yakima, WA 98901

Comments and requests for information may be sent to Mr. Bill Van Hoesen or fax to 253-966-1785.